Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 13.669516 15.614523 17.699828 20.097367 22.773114 25.662762 29.014740
2025-09-28 10.266578 12.807057 15.738135 19.352014 23.668690 28.639362 34.774836
2025-10-05 9.033095 11.913218 15.392241 19.870211 25.443484 32.111217 40.647242
2025-10-12 8.029594 11.137791 15.050647 20.283351 27.035528 35.386561 46.418503
2025-10-19 7.045173 10.227568 14.384930 20.136394 27.797014 37.549163 50.785290
2025-10-26 6.220307 9.423145 13.753746 19.934913 28.409440 39.483153 54.882414
2025-11-02 5.608679 8.836968 13.341875 19.956838 29.265425 41.716225 59.407747
2025-11-09 5.132251 8.389021 13.069039 20.123410 30.289947 44.179981 64.304822
2025-11-16 4.654259 7.886207 12.665113 20.052949 30.946291 46.133181 68.546734
2025-11-23 4.209403 7.387492 12.219054 19.872702 31.407915 47.802137 72.424035
2025-11-30 3.894253 7.061417 12.001666 20.004837 32.310441 50.107681 77.261836
2025-12-07 3.707272 6.924923 12.061878 20.552963 33.844025 53.367087 83.573093
2025-12-14 3.365463 6.503141 11.646374 20.343255 34.231962 54.989286 87.606950
2025-12-21 2.928151 5.873543 10.843351 19.457514 33.515512 54.920839 89.119819
2025-12-28 2.804049 5.788076 10.935465 20.026301 35.106392 58.390716 96.055385
2026-01-04 2.660479 5.652557 10.929402 20.424812 36.433244 61.494131 102.529803
2026-01-11 2.443116 5.356573 10.619640 20.283133 36.860378 63.196469 106.882882
2026-01-18 2.237185 5.061973 10.288422 20.078195 37.161806 64.696719 110.953602
2026-01-25 2.082313 4.853229 10.096159 20.101033 37.838760 66.810728 116.051009
2026-02-01 1.959633 4.697972 9.990456 20.268375 38.762936 69.348697 121.897512
2026-02-08 1.817333 4.487452 9.763591 20.197570 39.262994 71.197926 126.676419
2026-02-15 1.674372 4.260892 9.487966 20.016155 39.552200 72.695946 130.914345
2026-02-22 1.577987 4.127065 9.384233 20.149133 40.401741 75.154775 136.802887